Source: Sky News
Earlier this week, Thursday to be precise, Harry Jenkins resigned from his post as Speaker of the Australian House of Representatives and was replaced by Peter Slipper (former LNP member).
On initial thought I was left thinking that this would result in earth shattering political consequences for the current Parliament. However, on a second more careful consideration of the facts as they stand at time of writing my conclusions have somewhat steadied. Indeed while not as staggering as I had initially thought this would be, Harry Jenkin’s resignation still does have significant implications though only so far as it enables the Gillard government that much more room to manoeuvre and that the current government will most likely last the full term.
From a legislative perspective I don’t really see all that much changing. Let’s look first at the Malaysia solution; previously while having gathered the support of three of the crossbenchers (Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott and Bob Katter if I’m not mistaken) the government didn’t introduce the bill into the lower house as Tony Crooks had indicated he would be siding with the Coalition to oppose the bill. Sure the government now has an extra vote and will likely be able to pass the Malaysia solution through the lower house; yet its unlikely that it will be passed in the Senate where the Greens will certainly oppose it. The Coalition will almost certainly adopt a similar stance as well especially in light of Tony Abbott’s bone wearying oppositionism. Nor do I believe that the extra pressure which could be exerted on the Coalition to pass the the bill in the Senate by it’s passage in the lower house will be enough to force the Coalition to back down – they’ve already been coming under attack from Labour about playing politics with the ‘solution’ i.e. saying that they (the Coalition) support offshore processing while refusing to pass the necessary amendments to the Migration Act which enable Malaysia solution (which is actually a form of offshore processing). The pressure that could be brought to bear on the Liberals through that avenue of attack by the passage through the lower house of the necessary amendments in the Migration Act to enable Malaysia I don’t think will be sufficient to allow it clearing the Senate.
Secondly there’s pokies. The government does now have the ability to pressure Andrew Wilkie to tone down his proposed poker machine reforms, a fact not lost on caucus members – read here. However I’m more of a mind to think that despite whatever backbench rumblings there maybe in the Labour party and ferocious campaigns by the clubs directed at vulnerable Labour party seats, Andrew Wilkie will get his current set of reforms through as they are. One reason that I’m inclined this way is that quite soon after the PM received the call from Harry Jenkins informing her that he was resigning, she called Andrew Wilkie to reassure him that she would be sticking with their deal. Make what you will of that. Another reason is that Harry Jenkins himself, from what I’ve gleaned over Newsradio and on the radio rebroadcast of Insiders this morning, is quite a strong supporter of poker machine reforms of well. Of course I do note that Senator Xenophon admitting that going back to $1 bets (Wilkie’s original proposal I think) is an option and is also the Greens’ policy on poker machines.
Moving away from the legislative perspective (Malaysia and pokies were the ones that stood out most in my mind though in the SMH I did see health insurance as another one) there are a few other observations/thoughts I’d like to make;
- On Insiders this morning, there had been talk of this event allowing Labour to differentiate themselves more from the Greens. I’m not so sure about that since the Greens hold the balance of power in the Senate. Yes there maybe a little more differentiation but it won’t make that much of a difference (NB: Personally I don’t view the both them of as the same – I figure that the Greens are generally a little off their marbles while Labour is fairly centred as are the Libs – images to the contrary would be due to Tony Abbott’s current tactic of saying ‘No’ to everything from the ALP).
- The government has more control over things in the lower house.
- Control mentioned above translates into additional stability and likely less nerve racking days for Labour.
- Peter Slipper’s slip ups from now on will be very painful for the PM – more fodder for the Opposition.
- Speaking of the Opposition, Christopher Pyne putting up nominations of eight different ALP MP’s and repeatedly being turned down was somewhat amusing. Seriously though, I don’t buy into the stuff about breaking conventions of the Westminster system – they’re conventions not laws. One appears to be rather petulant when one relies on that argument.
- Politics is going to get much nastier. Tony Abbott’s hope to become PM early by relying on shaking to pieces a fragile minority government are pretty much gone. Out come the knives of desperation. Why? Well the Opposition leader has to be in there for the long haul now and that means coming up with real policy initiatives instead of simply resisting Labour wherever possible without counterproposals. From what I’ve seen of Tony Abbott as opposition leader I don’t see that happening – it’s too early to say that his leadership is in doubt or that he’ll be toppled, yet if Tony Abbott doesn’t change his tactics that could well be the result. Regardless I’m personally hoping that Malcolm Turnbull will make a comeback.
